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June 20, 2010

 
 

YES, I SAID IT FIRST. 

Weekly Article and Sports Magazine

www.yesisaiditfirst.com

Sunday, June 20, 2010
Volume 8; Article Number 23
Issue #206


AY CARAMBA...BYE HALAK!

By Patrick Morand, Senior Editor, “YES, I SAID IT FIRST”

The trade of NHL goaltender Jaroslav Halak’s negotiating rights two weeks before his contract expired is hardly an earthshaking trade.

The Montreal Canadiens had been working this trade for months. By making that trade the Canadiens have asserted that Halak could not possibly peak beyond what he did this season and made sure they received value back in his exchange.

Halak played well in the playoffs, but please critics, spare us because the St. Louis Blue’s new netminder has a long way to go to become legendary like Wayne Gretzky, Eric Lindros or even Patrick Roy.

His .924 save percentage in 2009-10 is only slightly better than a cast of other goalies in the NHL and on a team which has surrendered as many shots against as Montreal only really worth 2 fewer goals against than his ex-teammate competition for the Canadiens starting job, Carey Price.

People read way too much into save percentage and goals against numbers because there are no constants from team to team and opponent to opponent.

The easiest understanding of the real difference between a .924 save percentage and a .912 save percentage is in the Montreal stats from last year.

Halak played in 45 games and Price played 41.

Price faced about 120 shots less than Halak.

For every 100 shots Halak faced he let 7.76 get in the net while Price let 7.88 against him.

So if Halak and Price both faced 1000 shots based on last season’s results one extra goal would get behind Price.

It takes about two and a half games for the average goalie to face 100 shots. So for these players to statistically be different they both need to play about 30 games for Price to actually let two more goals in his net than Halak.

Halak and Price are two of a glut of goaltenders that could be free agents this summer that hardly have distinguished themselves as unique enough to demand much extra cash on the free market. Although Halak himself could have raked in money out of salary arbitration if the Canadiens were foolish enough to let it go there.

What Montreal fans and scribes need to understand is that the current offseason glut of very comparable goaltenders will make it a buyers’ market for teams in need. Montreal had to be a seller with one of their guys so they cashed in the earliest and the best they could.

Aside from his unforgettable 10 standout playoff games this spring Halak does not really guarantee anyone more wins in the regular season. Comparing his upside with other guys available it’s a dead heat.

Sending Halak packing to St. Louis was the right trade for Montreal to get something of value for him when they did – because the window to get anything for him (other than just him with an oversized contract) was closing.

The longer they waited the more desperate they would look and the trade value of an eminent free agent goalie the day before his contract expires is usually very low.

You can debate the hour of their trade, and possibly the return in the trade, but this player was never in the long term plans of the Canadiens, and Montreal is an organization that seldom could be accused of making the wrong decisions about which goaltender to keep.

Other organizations would love to have the Canadiens’ track record of goaltending success with their propensity to scout out the right solutions for the type of team they have.

Despite the sentimental value that Montreal fans and the gushy media place on Halak there are no guarantees that he is even an upgrade for St. Louis entering 2010-11.

Since they gave up two prospects, Lars Eller and Ian Schultz, it’s the Blues that may ultimately be the losers at the end of this deal. However the Blues needed a goalie so maybe not.

I think it’s a shrewd deal for Montreal for these reasons.

First, the Canadiens get two live bodies back in the trade, and one is a former first round pick.

Eller has completed one year of pro hockey in North America with the Blues AHL affiliate. He looked good in his first 80+ game season. He was drafted to be a top line center, and if he becomes that he instantly (meaning 2010-11) is a benefit to Montreal in a position that they need depth out of.

Eller is a big player, and Montreal has been diminutive in size and that has hurt their ability to come back in games.

A larger forward presence can help a team maintain possession and cut down on the work of the netminders. (This is a good time to point out that the small speedy forward experiment of Montreal has probably been a mistake.)

The other young forward, Schultz is a twenty year old junior who will make the move to the AHL this year.

Schultz’ brother, Washington Capitals defenseman Jeff Schultz led the NHL in plus/minus in 2010, so there is little reason to doubt Ian can make some progression to also advance to the NHL.

If the Canadiens would have waited to make a deal and then not got one done before July they would have had to sign Halak, lose him for a draft pick, or maybe go to salary arbitration and be stuck with him on terms they get no say in.

Assuming Halak makes between $3 to $4 million dollars from another team (a crazy one) the best that the Canadiens would have received as compensation would have been a second round pick.

How long would it have taken for that draft pick to actually skate in the red, white and blue?

Would it be 2013?

If they did not insist on getting live bodies back in the goaltender trade the Canadiens also would have been forced into tough free agency decisions without any leverage when negotiating with other forwards, like Tomas Plekanec.

Second, the Canadiens saved money because Halak could have insisted on more to stay in Montreal because the current fan/media climate helps his agent negotiate a deal.

The Canadiens were really guilty of overplaying a player that was on an entry level NHL contract. As he became a fan favourite in the battle for the hearts and minds of Montreal it put his price up.

There is no way some other organization that negotiates just on his career performance to date will have to pay Halak as much as what his agent would have brokered to stay in Montreal.

What would have been the biggest caveat situation for Montreal?

If Halak had made it to free agency and elected to go to arbitration against the Habs to have the judge set his salary the Canadiens would have paid too much.

Halak’s agent would have known that with so many other goaltenders in the market it would be foolish to wait for an outside offer. Then they could make the case in front of an arbitrator that Halak should be paid based on his 53 save game in the playoffs. The outcry of Montreal followers speaking his praises makes it hard to make a case that he should earn less.

The third reason the Halak trade was a smart one for Montreal is that the Canadiens still have Carey Price, which other teams still covet because he is only 22 years old (if they need to make a new deal in the future).

The Canadiens know that if they bottom out in 2011 or 2012 there are plenty of league general managers that like what they see in Price. If that were to happen they would need to restructure the whole balance of the team.

They can always package him to get something else.

It’s not like the Canadiens are actually on the cusp of being an elite team anyhow, regardless who is in nets for them. Too many things are missing – they are two bad winning streaks from being labelled the Islanders of the north.

A fact that is an inconvenient truth for some of my ardent readers that are Canadiens fans and who will certainly be sending me hate mail for writing this is that the Canadiens earned their seventeenth place standing last season.

The playoff run was uplifting, exciting, and unexpected – but it would be silly to think it really launched that team any closer to respectability status in 2010-11.

That team still has miles to go and only built up hope out of their playoff run, but hope is not a strategy to win titles.

Fourth and most importantly though, the Canadiens are still pursuing the same development plan for the goaltender position as they set out to do in 2005 when they drafted Price with their first round pick.

Price was drafted to be the Canadiens goalie of the future.

The Habs drafted Price with the fifth overall slot in 2005 to be their number one. Price was just four slots after NHL star Sidney Crosby in a deep draft year.

Not Halak.

Price has starred and won in the AHL playoffs and in World Junior hockey tournament and the Habs still think that is what he can do for them in the NHL when they have the right team chemistry to do that (circa 2015 maybe....send your angry cards and letters to admin@yesisaiditfirst.com please).

Hockey observers all admit that the 2010 playoffs were a fluke for Montreal. Nobody is expecting them to contend all season in 2011 regardless of who is in goal.

They had a sloppy team all season that did not play consistently great in front of either goalie.

Before the playoffs fans wanted to see trades of either netminder to try and fix all the problems holding them back. Some wished they would finish poorly to make sure they improved their draft standing.

One of the problems was that neither goaltender was really being given the regular starting job. As long as another capable man was on the bench it was always about competing for self and not the team. There was always an out for the coach to shake things up instead of improve on what they have.

While other goalies like Evgeni Nabokov (San Jose), Roberto Luongo (Vancouver), and Henrik Lundqvist (New York) get 60-70 starts the Montreal goalies were fighting for 40.

Halak was drafted in slot number 271 in 2003 and was not supposed to be holding back the heir apparent.

They knew about Halak when they drafted Price, and they put Price ahead of Halak in the minors, and they put Price before Halak in the NHL too until this year’s playoffs.

They also had Price ahead of Halak in pay by a difference of $1.7 million.

Yet they didn’t treat Price like he was the number one. Instead they asked the 22 year old to go out and play like Ken Dryden to earn the next start.

It really came as no shock that Halak did well in the 2010 playoffs because he had to earn a job somewhere, anywhere...but that contract year push obviously did not fool those who watched him all the time for seven seasons.

The only way this is a bad deal for Montreal is if all the following things happen.

For starters Canadiens would need to have trouble signing Price for under $2.5 million a year for multiple seasons.

The Habs would need both Eller and Shultz become flops and out of the organization by 2011.

The Habs would have to miss the playoffs and regress to worse than they placed in 2010 and all because of goaltending (not the usual can’t score)....and the St. Louis Blues would need to have a tremendous season just because of Halak.

The chance of all of that conspiring at once against Montreal next season is very remote.

If Montreal has another dismal season it will be for reasons in the middle of all this, but they have already removed one big distraction for 2010-11.

They now finally have given unbridled support to their goaltender of the future, Price, and neither player nor team has an out for at least one year.

Media and fans have been asking the Canadiens to settle on one or the other for a while.

They wanted a trade and a keep.

Well they got their trade, but perhaps the return is not what fans really envisioned. They should really ask themselves though what should a team give up to get a Halak when you know that so many decent goalies just like him are also to be had.

What was trading Halak supposed to fetch?

This is the offseason. There are no games to play tomorrow and no team desperate enough is arming for the stretch drive right now.

It may have been different back in February when the trade deadline passed.

I remember the rumours from back in the winter about potential deals where teams like Philadelphia needed a goalie like Price, but were not willing to part with scorers like Jeff Carter so they all fell through.

Perhaps there was no basis for those reports, but two seasons ago the Canadiens also chose Price when they sent away Cristobal Huet to Washington for a second round draft pick.

That season they gave up Huet for the final two months, a player they knew would be impossible to sign, and got even less for him than what they got for Halak this time.

Huet hardly lost a game the rest of that season until the playoffs and then scooted on over to Chicago for $5.5 million/year where he served this season as a backup to a man earning one sixth his pay that won the Stanley Cup.

Huet and the Hawks were married for 4 years so he isn’t going anywhere.

I know that all the other teams that did not sign Huet, including Montreal are glad they didn’t.

Back in 2008 some Montreal followers and media thought they should have kept Huet.

A real Frenchman born in France, Huet still holds the Montreal record for career highest save percentage and career highest playoff save percentage.

At the time Halak was the number three goalie, so it was not the plan to move Huet to make room for Halak. It was not done so Halak could then push Price aside after Huet left.

Huet eventually got his pay day, but he is today’s NHL poster boy for why everyone in Montreal that do not work for the Canadiens front office are dead wrong with their criticism of the Halak move to acquire two decent prospects.

NHL teams do not want to be tied down to goalies with four year contracts.

They would have to be forced into that type of deal, and with all the goalies available come free agency this summer there is no reason anybody should have to pay too much or pay too long.

The most elite goalie potentially available this summer is Nabokov who could be worth the $5.375 million he is already getting.

It is hard to say Halak has been as consistent as Nabokov and Nabokov is really not that consistent.

Marty Turco is a veteran and is finally free of Dallas where he finished a year that paid him $5.7 million.

If a team thinks paying a few million for a goalie for just one year is a safe bet he may be their man.

None of those teams would entertain a Halak because in most cases those types of teams want to rent a goalie just long enough for their own draft pick goalie to come of age and learn the game.

Jose Theodore, Chris Mason, Michael Leighton, Antero Nittymaki, Johan Hedberg and Dan Ellis make for a group of goalies that will all have reason based on prior performance to command about as much as Halak.

They may all ask for two year deals.

What makes a Montreal fan think their team could have gotten more than Eller and Schultz for their Halak when some of these guys have done greater things for longer and probably come cheaper.

Considering the timing of the Halak deal and what the Canadiens hoped to accomplish to make their team better for 2010-11 they did remarkably well in this deal.

Of course on paper everything looks good. In a hockey fan’s head the grass is always greener somewhere else with some other players.

We won’t really know until all the deals are made and in Montreal’s case that means using the money they saved to sign other veterans who are free agents this summer.

Waiting one more day, insisting on one more player or draft pick, and hoping beyond hope that a better offer would come along would have been silly.

For an organization that showcased netminders like Ken Dryden, Steve Penney, and Patrick Roy just in my lifetime I really have to give them credit.

More often than not they make the right moves and somehow slink into playoff position where as we have recently experienced anything can happen.

The Montreal team is in a better position this week than last and their management team will be able to check this deal albeit to deaf ears around Montreal with this balance chart weighing why Price vs. not Halak.

On the one side is why not Halak?

Well he is not Patrick Roy, and a long way from showing that. Many Habs watchers have noted that Halak would give them maybe two great games when he was given consecutive assignments and then play lousy in the next game and so-so the next prompting the hook.

The salary gods would have unfairly sided with Halak this year because they often look at the last single year performance. He was the fifth best NHL goalie in save percentage last season – not a good time to go to court to figure out his pay.

The Habs spent months feeling the waters on trading their goalies. No team showed them as much as the Blues had. It was conceivably the best trade deal they could have received for either of their guys that still gave them players in return which they could afford to keep.

The forward Eller may be the way to fix the mistakes of acquiring players lacking in size up the middle, and they also have the chance with extra salary room to try and keep the vets from last season that will be full free agents.

On the side of keeping Price the Canadiens can also justify.

They have always said they have confidence in Price and now they are putting money and actions behind that confidence. This ironically is what fans have wanted to see for the last three years going back to right after Price won the Calder Cup in the AHL.

The upside of a 22 year old NHL goalie that has already played 150 games at that age is still a mystery but the Canadiens know he has not reached the level he played at in juniors or the minors yet.

They think he will improve toward that, but they doubted that Halak could improve beyond where he reached in parts of 2009-10. That means the parts where he played well. We remember the playoffs but Canadiens coaches and fans can surely also remember the average Halak that would make good trade bait.

Finally, the plan was to draft a goalie of the future in 2005. They got the best goalie that year and that was to give them a player they could mould and instruct into greatness.

To be fully vindicated for taking that route they have to stick to that road map. It’s time for that organization to know for sure with no excuses if the player can be what he promised to be when they picked him.

So they picked Price again for a third time by choosing him over Halak on this occasion. This time amidst the jeers of their loyal nation they give this guy a “final” opportunity to win his own job.

It all seems like a good move to me, and I won’t be surprised if it works, by January maybe Habs fans too will be asking: “Halak who?”

Then the new story will be about how the best moves are always the most unpopular and gutsy moves. Kudos for the Canadiens management for finally figuring that out before it was too late.

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