Many things went right for the Minnesota Vikings last year. They had a great veteran season from Brett Favre at QB and he should return, but playing the Devil’s advocate should we really expect he goes another year as well as the last. That has been a problem for Favre - placing back to back great seasons together. He needs a quick start to gain confidence enough to let him coast in December again. Age will catch up to this timeless wonder because he does not attend a full training camp. Still at age 41 he set a career low 7 interceptions last year which means his pocket protection was pretty decent.
Over the first seven weeks the Vikings face New Orleans, Miami, New York Jets, Dallas, and Green Bay. They better be in sync early.
There aren’t many weaknesses in this team. They have done well building both lines and ranked second against the run in 2009.
The offensive line is strong and Adrian Peterson, a former #7 pick, helped Minnesota rank 1st in running the football last season. Peterson ran for 5.6 yards per carry, and is the only rusher to be in the top five each of the last three seasons. The biggest weakness for Peterson is a serious one – protecting the ball! Other NFL teams will exploit that more in 2010. Some concern might be who gets the job of backing up Peterson now that Chester Taylor skipped to Chicago.
The most important player on the Vikings that teams have to respect is second-year wide out Percy Harvin who had 790 yards in 2009, enough to be named NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year. I actually expected more out of him – it will come.
The main competition for Minnesota are the Green Bay Packers, and this all hinges on Favre’s performance. If Favre does what he did in 2009 that makes Minnesota about as good – but if he slips give the edge to the Packers and their QB Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers is 26 years old and off a campaign with 4,434 yards, 30 TDs and also only 7 picks. He was second among signal callers in rushing yards last season, plus, for two straight seasons, he has proven to be a reliable source of passing TDs and a low source of interceptions.
His receiving core is going to be better in 2010 and the game is this – can the Packers be a more balanced offense than the Vikings?
The Vikings have to run the ball to win games, while the Pack can pass, but run poorly, or run the QB out of the pocket - which is what Rodgers did to save his season last year – they need fewer QB sacks in 2010 – and that will be a work in progress. Rodgers is the only QB I have ever seen turn around really bad stats like sacks mid-season and be considered for awards and pro-bowl spots.
This pass first offense is balanced by the #2 defence in football. That means they hold them in there. Passing teams see more downs on the defensive end of the field and there is little different with Packers coming into 2010. We must figure that age will make them a tad slower down field so if the rushing game improves it will save the pass coverage for the playoffs (they looked terrible in their one playoff loss last January).
Can the Chicago Bears move up?
The only way I think they can is if Minnesota gets a flat start with Favre playing dismal. Chicago will not catch the Packers.
Chicago has Jay Cutler at QB and he has been erratic, but when he has confidence, and it has to start in the first week, he looks like a future Hall of Famer. With all due respect to everyone else on the Bears they forgot to help the guy for most of last year.
Maybe being settled in Chicago will show his potential this year.
Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator in Chicago and that means that Cutler’s arm will be the story. They will challenge the secondary, older secondary’s of teams like Green Bay this season. The extra options, if Cutler understands them, could make Bears games very exciting.
The o-line needs to be more committed to hold up rushers and allow Cutler time to see his targets. Having added Chester Taylor at RB, someone who knows the division will be great for younger RB Matt Forte to rest out. Forte ran circles around people his first year, and had a setback since then.
The Bears had injuries on defence last season, and it is really hard to imagine what having Brian Urlacher healthy with Julius Peppers on the same team will be like, but it has to be better, right?
Last season the Detroit Lions brought in a defensive minded head coach, Jim Schwartz, and now they are bringing in help for their star QB Matthew Stafford.
Stafford showed his heart and determination to lead by playing on a last place team, but also playing through injuries (See November win over the Browns with a separated non-throwing shoulder). Stafford had no real running threats and only one decent receiver, Calvin Johnson. This year though four guys come over to help on the ball including a running back drafted this year Jahvid Best.
Did I say that they were the worst team running the ball in 2009?
Well if they fix that – baby step that it is – it will help everything else they have tried to do, and Detroit will win twice as many games this year.
Almost forgot.... I am picking Green Bay to win this division, and possibly go all the way to the Superbowl. The progression of Rodgers at QB tells me they know what they have and he has adjusted well to protection problems. They will only get better, and Favre in Minnesota will get older. I really would fear the first seven weeks if I were Coach Brad Childress in Minnesota.