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YES, I SAID IT FIRST.
SPLASH DEBUT
By Patrick Morand, Senior Editor, “YES, I SAID IT FIRST”
I have to admit I expected that all the hype leading up to the 2009 first round pick making his big league debut would be for not. I thought it was just a slow sports week and that fans were bored so they got tricked into reading about and buying tickets to watch Strasburg. Boy was I missing the boat. Strasburg not only lived up to billing and the pressure of knowing all eyes were on him, but he way over exceeded even the dreams of the most ardent Nationals fans in his debut. But you know we should have expected some of that, it happens from time to time that a number one pick does live up to his billing and continue what he had been doing in his cameo of greatness in the minor leagues. We would be forgiven if we never expect that because baseball draft picks are so young, and lately the number one picks have all been high school picks (well 7 of the last 12), and now pitchers – fad again. In the history of the draft’s 45 years only 18 guys selected first overall even amount to be good enough to be All-Stars. Only two have ever won Rookie of the Year. A first overall pick has yet to qualify for baseball’s Hall of Fame. Usually picking pitchers with the first pick backfires – positional players have a broader path to continue their hitting success in the majors under good coaching...but going with a pitcher is a bit of a wild card at best. Teams have always known this. They also used to draft older players out of college mainly. Chalk one up for the Nationals, Strasburg is 21 and he last played at Arizona State University – so they could probably confirm in 2009 that he had the “stuff” before college, during, and now after. Even still pitchers that are number one picks have a horrendous track record at panning out – so those sceptical among us there is hope yet that Strasburg may eventually be forgotten a little like 2006 pick Luke Hochevan (Kansas City), 2002 pitcher Brian Bullington (Pittsburgh), and 1989 Ben McDonald (Baltimore). However, I have noticed that for certain spans of time, teams in baseball get inspired to pick pitchers and we are on one of those runs now. There were no pitchers picked first in the amateur entry draft until 1973. Then a spew of pitchers were selected first from 1988 to 1997 - which probably was because Andy Benes in 1988 was a successful pitcher for San Diego (however the later picks really did not pan out any). So teams learned again to pick positional players, or really sure pitching prospects that were already playing in college, including guys that re-entered the draft and were more mature. Until Tampa Bay picked David Price in 2007 and he has courtly made the transition to MLB as a top left handed pitcher without problem. Now teams will be bold again, and a good thing for the Nationals. Strasburg, with his 100 mph fastball and good mix of three pitches completely stymied the Pittsburgh Pirates in his first big league game. Strasburg pitched 7 innings, walked nobody, and struck out 14 hitters, including the final seven batters he faced showing that he was getting stronger as the game went on. I know what you are thinking, cynics, it was only Pittsburgh. A tad better than the teams he faced in the minor leagues pitching for Syracuse where in his first four starts he had a 0.39 ERA in over 23 1/3 innings, striking out 27 and walking only 4. Well he is still consistent if Pittsburgh is no better than some International League opponent. Reality is that this season no other MLB team has struck out more than 11 Pirates in a game and it’s been two months since someone has cut down eight Bucs. And, yes Strasburg did it in 7 innings in fewer than 100 pitches. It is rare that on the big stage when everyone is actually watching someone can actually beat the bar by that much. Rare, but not never – what I like about the Strasburg story for right now in 2010 for as long as the Nats allow him he is delivering and giving us a reason to tune in and watch. As heralded as he has become and with baseball’s uncanny ability to disappoint us as we get to know players there still is surrounding him a bunch of hope. While in AAA with Syracuse the ballpark set records for attendance when Strasburg pitched and while on the road he helped other teams set club records. One night while 19000 fans watched the big league club in DC, Strasburg was himself entertaining 13000 spectators in minor league Rochester. The much hyped Nationals debut brought in record attendance at Nationals Park where over 40000 (more than seats) turned out, as well as 200 credentialed media. The next series where Strasburg is expected to pitch is on the road in Cleveland. Cleveland had 41000 fans for their home opener, but have averaged a paltry 18000 ever since to watch their last place team. Well as soon as it was known Strasburg would be pitching for the Nationals in one of Cleveland’s home games the tickets started to sell. The Strasburg effect on the road at Progressive Field is 10000-15000 more fans. That will continue every five games until sometime after the All-Star break when the Nationals close the kid down. Historically there have been only a few baseball figures that have been able to drive such ticket sales – and usually they have a few games under their belt first. The Strasburg 14 strikeout game has just set that drive in motion exponentially, or so it seems. Only homeruns or strikeouts can do that, and usually the homeruns do it late in the season when a player is assaulting some record a la Mark McGwire in the late 90s. When it is strikeouts it is usually a phenomenon we were not ready for. In that way, while we do not know if this Strasburg-mania will last – or if he will suddenly implode and look real – we do have history to tell us that there have been pitchers that have received this response before.Unfortunately most of those pitchers do drop off the earth suddenly. Strasburg then best needs to be compared to his peers before him - exciting young pitchers that burst onto the big league scene to start their careers. None better to compare with than Dwight (Doc) Gooden when he appeared with the New York Mets starting rotation in 1984. Gooden and his 98 mph pitches were good enough to make him at 19 years old the youngest player ever on an All-Star team. That season he had 17 wins which was exceptional for his age and so fans would show up just to watch him. In 1984 he won eight of his last nine decisions but there was a noteworthy ending with his three final starts that season. Over those last three appearances Gooden struck out 41 batters and walked only one. Gooden led the league in strikeouts that season with 284. Gooden was even better in 1985 when he became the youngest Cy Young Award winner. That season Gooden had 24 wins, 268 strike outs and a 1.53 ERA. They say he even dominated in the nine games he lost that season – I guess he didn’t get much run support some nights. They say that from 1983-1985 there was a stretch where Gooden threw 10800 pitches. From August 1984 to May 1986 he made 50 starts and posted a 37-5 record with a 1.40 ERA and 412 strike outs (and surrendered only 90 walks). Obviously some off-field drug and alcohol issues caught up with Gooden but for those first few years he was worth going to the park to watch. Another pitching start that got some of the attention like Strasburg is quickly receiving was the 1976 debut of Mark “the Bird” Fidrych. That season people went to see Fidrych pitch, but not necessarily to watch his team, the Detroit Tigers, play. The Tigers were terrible, but Fidrych went 19-9 and had a 2.34 ERA. At only 22 years old Fidrych with funny mannerisms on the mound was like a circus for the curious to come and see...and he was winning. Fidrych was named Rookie of the Year that season. Unfortunately for all of us, after 1976 Fidrych was just an average pitcher on a poor team and his career did not last past 1980. Also I remember the late 1970s for J.R. Richard of the Houston Astros who was a tall lanky powerful pitcher, a bit wild though, that also captured attention. Richard was a bit older by the time he was something you did not want to miss at your local National League ballpark. His career blossomed in 1977 when he became 27. Over a two year span Richard became one of only three pitchers ever (Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax the others) to strike out 300 hitters in back to back seasons. In fact 319 strike outs in 1979 is still an Astros record. Richard had a nine year pro career, but he spent much of his formative years in the minors. The Astros were contenders and he was contributing, albeit in the shadow of the great Nolan Ryan. Some have inferred that Ryan despised Richard perhaps for taking attention from him – and competing with him. It was Richard though who perhaps could not handle the pressure of being paid significantly less than Ryan because he was on Ryan’s team and Ryan was the Astros main meal ticket. In 1980 Richard suffered a stroke prior to a game and never returned to a level of prominence, retiring shortly after. One of the most charismatic and followed pitchers though from his first start in 1981 has to be Fernando “El Toro” Valenzuela. If any pitcher burst onto the scene and created a following that has lasted even after he left it is he. Could have been because he could not speak a word of English when he started in Los Angeles Dodgers blue? Could have been because he is Mexican, and there are lots of Latinos that follow baseball and that live in Southern California that instantly became Dodger fans? Not lost in that today is that baseball has created a whole Spanish broadcasting and marketing presence and now so many Latino players have since followed the Valenzuela path to prominence in the league. What Valenzuela did when he got his start, perhaps like Strasburg is about to, is start well. In fact entire career numbers aside Valenzuela started better than anyone could imagine. Yet for Valenzuela he was only really great for his first eight starts in the league. At 21 years old Valenzuela not only won his first eight games he had a microscopic 0.50 ERA through those eight starts in a season where not only did huge crowds come out to see him, but his team ended up winning a World Series. Valenzuela had mass appeal and it earned him a Cy Young Award, Rookie of the Year Award, and a spot on the roster again in 1982. However with El Toro it is likely the shortened season and interruption caused by the 1981 player’s strike that broke his momentum. So now that Strasburg has his cleats muddy with dirt from the hill of a Major League park which path will his career take from here? Eventually teams around the league will get a look at him and hitters will get a book on him. That we know. How will he respond? The Nationals are not in a hurry to make him their ace, but the pressure will be on them to do so. They will be under a microscope for every decision they make with Strasburg. These other pitchers I mentioned all had things that stained over the sparkling gleams they started with, and we just do not know what if any of those career killers will happen with this prospect, and neither do the Nationals so excuse them if they become over protective of their asset. Right now what Strasburg has done for sure has cemented his beginning, as he will certainly be forever remembered as the guy who struck out 14 batters in his first Major League start. Only time will tell though, what this guy will be doing next spring, or the autumn after that or two more seasons later. It’s nice to hope that we get to see more of this though. For the time being though, if you, like me, were sleeping through the lead up to Strasburg’s last start I doubt you will stray too far from the highlight reel show after his next one. from the Media Division of OJC-Inc.
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After Stephen Strasburg’s impressive Major League pitching debut for the Washington Nationals you would be OK to ask: “...let’s just see where this guy is at this time next year”. 
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