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YES, I SAID IT FIRST. 

Weekly Article and Sports Magazine

www.yesisaiditfirst.com

Saturday, August 20, 2011
Volume 11; Article Number 4
Issue #253


BRADY BAROMETER

By Patrick Morand, Senior Editor, “YES, I SAID IT FIRST”

If you hear something over and over enough times you can be forgiven if you start to believe it.

Coming into the 2011 NFL season with roster positions on a few teams still up in the air it is pretty obvious with teams considered favourites that it’s because of one single player they have – an elite quarterback.

We know that thirty two teams will start the season some touting first or second year pros under center, but six of those teams have starting quarterbacks that have already won an NFL championship.

Those six teams are New England (Tom Brady), Indianapolis (Peyton Manning), New Orleans (Drew Brees), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers), and New York Giants (Eli Manning).

If the bet were offered to you that any one of those six teams will win the Superbowl against the field of the remaining twenty-six teams/men would you take the six or the field?

If you think one of the six teams with the experienced champion at the helm, and all are pretty decent teams as there isn’t a real stinker there, you are gambling that a few of the nouveau riche bubble quarterbacks won’t break through this season.

If you take the field then you may like your numbered chances with any of Matt Ryan (Atlanta), Joe Flacco (Baltimore), Matt Schaub (Houston), Michael Vick (Philadelphia), Mark Sanchez (New York Jets), Tony Romo (Dallas), Philip Rivers (San Diego), Jay Cutler (Chicago) or some upstart winning an easy division and causing an early round upset for a fifty percent chance at a conference championship and Superbowl cameo.

Considering the hype bestowed on some of these guys and their teams: Atlanta, New York Jets and Philadelphia in particular, maybe that is a smart bet.

BAROMETER OF GREATNESS

The point is in today’s NFL the quarterback is a very important position and a team can go from first to worst if their guy can’t play due to injury or as Arizona found out last year without Kurt Warner - to retirement.

Any bet against the veteran winners might be considered silly, because the guys I first listed that have led their teams to Superbowl titles have accounted for nine of the last ten Superbowl wins, including eight consecutive, and three of them have lost Superbowls to each other.

Only one player, Brady, has quarterbacked in four Superbowls, and of the six guys listed he is the one who hasn’t won lately...all five of the other elite guys have won since his last title. Yet Brady is the quarterback, probably the only one in the league that is used as a barometer of greatness by which everyone else is compared.

If a quarterback is a top ten quarterback then he ranks after Brady and among nine others.

Peyton Manning is often considered the best passer, but he has only one Superbowl title so nobody wants to put him ahead of Brady.

Every year at this time there tends to be a controversy somewhere about quarterbacks and how they rank among their peers. And every fortnight or so that swirl gusts in New York and yet again people will question if Peyton’s younger brother Eli Manning has earned the right to even be listed as elite.

There is some history to this dispute and it may be a good omen for Eli that this is happening again, because last time he did not speak up when ex-Giant teammate Tiki Barber asserted on the eve of the 2007 season that Eli wasn’t even a top 16 quarterback.

Eli worked at his game that year through the normal ups and downs of Giants football under the glare of lights and critics and somehow won the Superbowl. In the process he put a blemish on Brady’s quest for an unbeaten season and everyone forgot about poor Tiki.

At the time we took Tiki to town in our writing here suggesting that since so many guys were rookies that year and some teams had veteran backups with no clear starter the fact that Eli earned his job surely meant he had to rank better than sixteenth.

We were vindicated then and feel it’s time to step to bat for Eli again, but it looks like this time the debate isn’t whether he is better than middle of the pack, but is he in a class with Brady and the others on the four other teams with experienced Superbowl quarterbacks?

LIST OF CHANGE

That is a list that changes every year. Lots of great quarterbacks never win Superbowls but are ranked artificially high for their perceived abilities.

Back in 2007 people fawned over Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, and Matt Hasselbeck, but nobody expects any of these guys to win anything this year. Since then Eli Manning has not only won a Superbowl over a great team he has also jumped the cue of veteran players into the discussion of winning and longevity with a contending team and he did this based on play not what people perceive about him.

We thought (I always had reservations about McNabb and Palmer) that some of those other guys built up reputations that placed them into this elite discussion prematurely. The truth is that the reputation of being reliable and a winner, like Brady is just as hard to defeat as it is to earn in the first place.

The NFL changes so fast.

Just yesterday I looked up who the highest paid (expected total compensation) players are for this season and shockingly only two of them are the best quarterbacks on the best teams.

Peyton Manning is currently first in pay at $23 million, and Sam Bradford the second year quarterback of St. Louis is second?

Bradford? Really!

Bradford is to earn a little more than the great Brady north of $18 million for one season. The top five rounds out with a defensive player, Oakland’s Richard Seymour and Michael Vick.

Last season people doubted Vick could regain a starter’s job in the NFL and now he has chased another quarterback out of Philly and symbolically opened the “Eagle Kool-Aid Stand” out in the parking lot. He had a great half season last year and earned back job security and now he might be your bet to get even better than he has been in his whole career to date based on his play from October to December?

Brady’s first season as quarterback in New England which ended in an unlikely Superbowl against the league’s best team did not earn him his elite reputation until two seasons later when he won his second championship and pretty much became money winning consecutive games and playoff games. Brady did not get in the elite discussion until people feared the Patriots.

So people are quick to anoint players with little evidence to prop them up, and sometimes a little slow on recognizing the real persevering talents.

Lots of players have had good seasons. Unfortunately teams buy in and pay out too early. Then they end up stuck in last place bailing their way out.

Derek Anderson’s one great season in Cleveland should in hindsight go down as a major miscalculation. The Browns invested so much in him after one upstart season that they felt compelled to build around him. When they should have been drafting someone better or trading for competence they held out hope that Anderson could be coached back to his 2007 form, and he never was. He ended up part of that squalor in Arizona last year as the Cardinals decomposed after Warner retired with no confident replacement at quarterback.

LOADS OF CONFIDENCE

The one thing that Brady, Manning and Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, and Rodgers have that sets them apart from everybody else including Vick coming into this season has to be their loads of confidence. They all have the confidence from knowing they already won and if you watch them in any of their seasons even on falling short they look like they still expect to do it again, sometime.

When asked on a New York radio show whether he considered himself a top five quarterback alongside the likes of Tom Brady, the usually reserved Eli Manning did not hesitate to answer: “Yeah, I consider myself in that class and Tom Brady is a great quarterback...”

And why not say that?

Manning is the only one who can claim to have gone toe to toe against Brady and have beaten him in the most important game.

One repercussion of putting himself in that class of player is that his teammates back him up. His wide receiver Hakeem Nicks told the New York Times that Eli picks up on blitzes and can dissect a defense as good as anyone in the league. That certainly can’t hurt him where they all must prove it together in games.

We have to assume that if the New York radio interviewer even dared ask Eli that question to compare him with Brady or the other top five that they expected him to completely avoid an answer so they could later declare for him that he shouldn’t even be in the discussion.

There is something about some quarterbacks that seem to make people want to believe they are for real, like McNabb and Palmer for all those years or for the hype afforded Schaub in Houston every year with no result to back it up.

REPUTATION OF DOUBT

There also is something about certain guys that make us expect doubt regardless of what they do. Eli Manning is one of those guys. To be fair Roethlisberger is another one of those guys and all he has ever done is win football games and titles.

People will say that it’s their good organizations that make them look better.

So if Palmer could have been on the Giants he would have still been number three in active passers (in 2005)?

McNabb was in a great organization as teams do not come more committed than the Philadelphia Eagles, but he never made it to Brady level.

People wanted to write Brady off after the first year when he stepped in for injured Drew Bledsoe. He was one of those guys that they did not want to believe, and they thought while New England was coached well at quarterback it was beginner's luck. They did it with smoke and mirrors. Brady's game was too simple for the NFL and he wouldn’t be able to sustain winning. New England didn’t earn dynasty respect until Brady got them through three seasons and two playoffs.

Those who make comments about quarterbacks and who is or is not in the elite five of the game tend to over emphasize passing stats. They look at passer rating and they see that yards passed number as what makes someone great.

Palmer was all about passing until he had nobody good to pass to and no offense line to hold up the pass rush.

Brady has always had those things, but he hasn’t been considered the best passer, just the guy with the most options on every play and he routinely chooses the right one over and over again.

Peyton Manning is the best manager of an offense by far.

People rated Brett Favre so high all those years when it really looked like a bunch of sand lot plays where he made it all up. He was fun to watch.

It was also a broken play that Eli Manning took advantage of to win the Superbowl in February 2008. You know the fourth and dead play that he almost got sacked on twice, escaped and made a play down field which resulted in a circus catch.

That play was made because he was determined.

THE LOVE OF FAVRE

People loved Favre for doing those plays but when it came to the gut check time in big games it was precisely a play like that which was the end of Favre time and time again wherever he played or however old he was.

Every guy in the NFL should be able to throw the ball. Really these guys that have won championships did so by dictating the game when they were on offense and making smart plays that kept them out of trouble. Sometimes taking a sack is the smartest play but the passer and quarterback rating systems punish that.

Last year Eli Manning had a higher than normal number of interceptions and that may sour those who think to be considered elite like Brady means perfection every game.

Confidence, reliability and starting every game for six seasons as Eli Manning has done on a team that has been in contention in the tough NFC East every season should account for something. It may be worth noting that since Manning has been the starter in New York, Brady has not won a Superbowl but he gets a pass because he is well...Brady.

Eli doesn’t get credit because in New York on the big stage, where he confidently went out on a limb and declared he is in a class with Brady, people see too much of Manning’s mistakes through a media begging for controversy.

They see that Eli had 25 passes intercepted last year because he had to try and make too many risky plays. He had less than twenty five the two previous seasons combined because he did not have to gamble as much.

You have to pass the ball to be intercepted but a sporadic Giant running game in 2010 made Manning have to try more risky plays than he wanted.

They loved it when Favre did it, pass all the time from everywhere to every place and ironically a season with only twenty five interceptions for Favre would have kept him in the elite conversation.

Favre had six seasons with more than twenty interceptions. Eli Manning has never thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, but Favre also did that six times and they want to place him in the Hall of Fame.

It’s about consistency and confidence.

CONSISTENT AND CONFIDENT SIX

For six seasons Manning has been pretty consistent and now that he speaks up to retort the interviewer seems very confident. Imagine what we would say about him if he said he didn’t believe he should be in the discussion of greatness with Brady and the others?

Of any of the six teams with active quarterbacks that have won the Superbowl, Eli Manning is at his worst on par with Aaron Rodgers on his worst day.

Remember in 2009 when Rodgers led the league early in the season in being sacked? Several Green Bay faithful had it in their head, a belief that Rodgers couldn’t lead them to a Superbowl because he got sacked too much – the NFL is a place of change and we all know that change addresses a team’s weak spot first.

And at his best Eli Manning is better than Roethlisberger who plays a game supported by his unique size and strength reliant less on passing than the others.

Manning seems as much in command of the huddle as New Orlean's Brees is and his teammates are as complimentary.

This puts him solidly in the discussion of top five and elite quarterback behind only his brother Peyton and Brady.

It is really hard to put any of the rest of the field in the league ahead of him entering 2011 because none of them have won anything, none have been quarterbacking as long, or those who are older don’t have teams that can support their ambition to win, and none of them should have the arrogance enough to think they can.

There are demons for every one of the others to overcome be it Joe Flacco decision making in the playoffs, Philip River’s teams that sputter, or Michael Vicks propensity to fall to injury.

That sums up their current reputations’ and that is how we will judge them until they show otherwise.

We will take that bet, the one of the six versus the field with little caution, and boldly expect Eli Manning or one of the other five will lift the Lombardi Trophy this winter simply because their reputations as winners have already been earned and all six of them would have to fail for us to be wrong.

From within that six if you had to choose one...maybe you can go ask Tiki what he thinks...but be careful the one who is not expected to lead his team to win his division, has a chip on his shoulder, and has to play better than he did last year.

I have a hunch which might be the surprise of 2011. If you believe what they are telling you over and over about Eli you can be forgiven if you disagree.

YES, I SAID IT FIRST is a weekly Internet article
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