Yet this is what managers attempt to do when setting up their playoff rotations, be it a four man rotation or a more condensed three man scale like the 2009 New York Yankees used. They believe that they can even out the game by starting their best pitcher against the other team’s best pitcher, and they hope that in a long series they win that match two out of three times.

Long series...are you kidding me? 

If I were a manager I would not want a long playoff series – even a World Series because in my opinion the greatest teams are winning those things in four or five games not seven! In fact I believe the plan of not going for the jugular by out-thinking in addition to out-playing the other team is the reason we are so conditioned to expect that everything is so close and must go seven games.

Thirty-Five World Series in history have gone a full seven games.

In the last eight World Series that went seven games the home team has won that seventh game – the Pittsburgh Pirates were the last road team to win a World Series game seven in 1979, and I would not suggest any manager exhorts to copy how they did by getting behind three games to one before storming back to do that.

World Series are best of seven affairs, but the smart manager, and especially the manager without the extra game at home really needs the thing to end in fewer games with his team driving.

KEEP OTHER TEAM GUESSING

I think there are some ways to help that to happen and the best way may be to start by keeping the other team on its toes. Perhaps do not announce who the starting pitcher will be for each game until it’s time to play the game.

In the lead up to the baseball playoff games of late there tends to be too much time for players and hitting instructors to scout out the type of pitches they will be seeing from game starters. It might be wise to hide the exact schedule from them.

In a sport where dugout signals like bunt, steal, and take a pitch are disguised I am not sure why they are so accommodating with line-up information so long before each game. There does not really have to be a pattern to the rotation like in the regular season. With all the off days and the impending four months off to follow the final out there should be no saving guys – that means everyone should be ready to go.

For game one of the 2010 World Series in San Francisco the Giants started their ace pitcher Tim Lincecum and as predicted the Texas Rangers paraded out Cliff Lee and his unblemished playoff record.

Neither selection was a surprise but it was evident early that besides Lee struggling with his curve ball placement the Giant hitters were devoted to chasing pitches off the plate and were aggressive driving up Lee’s pitch count.

It was obvious that this was the Giants strategy from the start and every batter did it. Would they have had an answer if say the Rangers started C.J. Wilson instead – or would that have thrown them for a loop?

The one thing about the World Series as opposed to any other baseball series is that where the teams are in opposite leagues they may not be as familiar with each other’s personnel. One thing that is quite consistent in baseball is that teams will play either a sloppy first game (Giants 11 Texas 7) or a very conservative game as they get used to the matchup. Then things heat up and engage as they settle in during the middle three games of the series.

GAME ONE PERFORMANCE INSIGNIFICANT?

How many times has a team looked so out of place in game one, looked like they were in for a short dispatch only to turn things around in game two and go on to win the series?

The 1981 Los Angeles Dodgers lost the first two games at home and still recovered to win that year over New York.

The 1983 Baltimore Orioles lost game one of the Series to Philadelphia – looking ice cold in the batting box at home only to rebound with four straight wins including a sweep of the middle road games to a championship. That series followed the same script as their ALCS victory over Chicago.

In that year the Phillies and the White Sox pitched their best pitchers on game one, and you wonder if the hitters were that cold in hindsight any pitcher would have stymied them for those games. Only then the ace pitcher is sidelined for a few days of rest so it’s almost a wasted start.

In 1996, the Atlanta Braves looked like they were cruising toward their second consecutive World Series championship when they opened on the road and the Yankees were not prepared for them.

In game one Atlanta started John Smoltz against New York’s young Andy Pettite. The final was Atlanta 12 New York 1 and those two pitchers remained the pitchers of record.

In game two Atlanta won again 4-0 with Greg Maddux winning over Jimmy Key. That left Atlanta up two games to none heading back to Dixie.

New York came back after being terribly outplayed, but not significantly outpitched, to win four straight and win that World Series.

How did they do it?

Game three put the number three starters together in a game won by New York’s David Cone 5-2.

With Atlanta up in the series 2-1 their manager Bobby Cox did not feel that his team was losing control of the series so he optioned out Danny Neagle to start against New York’s number four starter Kenny Rogers. In that game neither starter lasted; the game finished 8-6 New York so Atlanta had squandered their home field advantage. 

Game five was a rematch of game one and it finished 1-0 New York. In that game Smoltz was tagged with his first ever World Series loss, and in game six the Maddux versus Key rematch also went against Atlanta.

People often wonder how Atlanta could make the playoffs so many times and not win more titles with such great pitching but the answer lies in a thread of analysis from what happened in that 1996 series.

MANAGERS NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH

Managers sometimes do not get aggressive enough trying to finish things and often forget the desperation of the other guys to also win the same prize.

If Cox had come back with Smoltz in game four would he have been able to do better than Rogers and the Yankees bullpen?

It would have been worth a try. A 3-1 series lead and a Maddux versus Pettite match in game five may have closed out the series for Atlanta.

That series was star laden with pitching and both teams were pretty deep in the one through three slots. What was the benefit to baseball society of a Neagle versus Rogers’ interlude in that fourth game anyway...?

Now maybe Cox was thinking that he was worried about Smoltz pitching on three day’s rest, but what else was there to save him for?

Neagle would have still been there for a relief appearance, and the game finished 8-6 so Atlanta had the offense in that one to win and would have taken a stranglehold on the series.

Of course in the 1990s it was generally accepted that everyone used four starters in every series while the managers of the current era sometimes plan to use their ace pitchers three times in a seven game series so baseball has generally adopted that three days’ rest is now adequate for playoffs because the player will not be fatigued over a long period of time.

All these games are must wins. Actually the next win that makes someone closer to winning the series is the most important win – saving guys often backfires and it is because the other team knows exactly what you have left.